The determinants of internal conflict in the world: How to estimate the risks and better target prevention efforts?

Release date : 14 September 2020

A report by Ferdi for the Fondation Prospective et Innovation – May 2020

Through five parts, this report first provides a description of the recent evolution of violence in its various forms in developing countries in order to fully understand the notion of conflict based on the analysis of the most comprehensive cross-sectional data representative of the current context.

Second, the study provides a retrospective of key theoretical and empirical studies that identify the main drivers of conflict.

Third, the study proposes different general policy approaches by which structural and non-structural factors of conflict can be addressed in the context of conflict prevention.

Finally, in order to better target these actions, the study proposes a new conflict risk indicator, identifying for each country and for each year the structural and non-structural risks of conflict outbreak. This section includes a review of the available econometric methods, the justification of the chosen model as well as the presentation of the different variables and their basis in the literature on conflict.

The analysis of these results, in the fifth and final part, allows us to guide the targeting of opportunities for preventive actions and to implement a dynamic approach that allows us to address the risk factors well before the outbreak of conflict.

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Informations pratiques

  • Author : Sosso feindouno and Laurent Wagner
  • Editor : Ferdi, FPI
  • Number of pages : 90
  • ISBN : 978-2-9550779-8-6
  • Version : Papier